December 2022 Note: Survey responses were collected from December 5 to September 12. Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall in December, according to the firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators for current activity were all negative. The firms on balance also reported a decline in employment. The future indicators improved, suggesting that the firms expect overall growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Suggest Declines The diffusion index for current general activity remained negative but rose 6 points to -13.8 this month. This is its fourth consecutive negative reading and sixth negative reading in the past seven months. Thirty-one percent of the firms reported declines in activity, while 17 percent reported increases. The majority (51 percent) reported no change. The indicators for new orders and shipments both declined: The new orders index decreased 9 points to -25.8, its lowest reading since April 2020, and the shipments index fell 13 points to -6.2, its first negative reading since May 2020. On balance, the firms reported a decline in employment. The employment index dipped into negative territory for the first time since June 2020, falling from 7.1 in November to -1.8 this month. The 19 percent of firms reporting declines in employment narrowly exceeded the 17 percent that reported increases; 64 percent reported steady employment. The average workweek index also turned negative, falling 10 points to -8.9. Price Increases Are Less Widespread The firms continued to report overall increases in prices, but the indexes for prices paid and prices received both declined this month. The current prices paid index decreased 9 points to 26.4, its lowest reading since September 2020 and near its long-run average. Over 29 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 3 percent reported decreases; 66 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index decreased 10 points to 24.3. Roughly one-quarter of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods this month, none reported decreases, and 75 percent reported no change. Firms’ Reports Are Mixed on Production, Higher on Capacity Utilization In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the fourth quarter ending this month compared with the third quarter of 2022 (see Special Questions). A slightly higher share of firms reported a decline in production (41 percent) compared with an increase in production (36 percent). Regarding firms’ capacity utilization rate for the current quarter and one year ago, the median current capacity utilization rate reported among the responding firms was 80 to 90 percent, slightly higher than the 70 to 80 percent that was reported for one year ago. Although most firms reported labor supply and supply chains as slight or moderate constraints to capacity utilization, 30 percent indicated labor as a significant constraint and 23 percent indicated supply chains as a significant constraint. Looking ahead over the next three months, most firms expect the impacts of various factors to stay the same; however, more than 26 percent of the firms expect financial capital impacts to worsen, up from 8 percent when this question was asked in September. Future Indicators Improve The diffusion index for future general activity increased for the second consecutive month, rising 10 points to 3.8, its first positive reading since May. The share of firms that expected increases in activity (37 percent) slightly exceeded the share of firms that expected decreases (33 percent); 27 percent expected no change. The future new orders index turned positive, climbing 18 points to 13.6, and the future shipments index increased from 10.2 to 22.5. The firms continued to expect increases in employment over the next six months, and the future employment index rose 7 points to 18.4. Nearly 29 percent of the firms expect to increase employment in their manufacturing plants over the next six months; 11 percent anticipate employment declines. The future capital expenditures index increased from 6.4 to 18.0. Summary Responses to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued declines for the region’s manufacturing sector. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all negative, and the firms reported a decline in employment, on balance. The survey’s broad indicators for future activity improved and indicate firms expect growth overall over the next six months. Special Questions (December 2022) 1. How will your firm’s total production for the fourth quarter of 2022 compare with that of the third quarter of 2022? % of firms An increase of: 10% or more 12.8 5-10% 7.7 0-5% 15.4 Subtotal 35.9 No change 23.1 A decline of: 0-5% 15.4 5-10% 15.4 10% or more 10.2 Subtotal 41.0 2. Which of the following best characterizes your plant's percentage capacity utilization currently (2022:Q4) and one year ago (2021:Q4)? 2022:Q4 2021:Q4 Capacity Utilization Rate of reporters % of reporters Less than 30% 0.0 2.6 30-40% 2.6 2.6 40-50% 0.0 2.6 50-60% 5.1 5.3 60-70% 25.6 28.9 70-80% 15.4 18.4 80-90% 30.8 18.4 90-100% 20.5 21.1 Median Utilization Rate 80-90 70-80 3. In the current quarter, to what degree have the following factors acted as constraints on capacity utilization? Not at all Slightly Moderately Significantly (%) (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 74.4 23.1 2.6 0.0 Energy markets 69.2 17.9 7.7 5.1 Financial capital 84.6 12.8 2.6 0.0 Labor supply 15.0 27.5 27.5 30.0 Supply chains 15.0 40.0 22.5 22.5 Other factors 66.7 4.8 9.5 19.0 4. Over the next three months, how do you expect the impacts of the following factors as constraints on capacity utilization to change? Worsen Stay the same Improve (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 10.3 82.1 7.7 Energy markets 20.5 66.7 12.8 Financial capital 26.3 73.7 0.0 Labor supply 12.5 70.0 17.5 Supply chains 15.0 65.0 20.0 Other factors 15.8 78.9 5.3 Summary of Returns December 2022 December vs. November Six Months from Now vs. December Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business-19.4 17.2 51.2 31.0 -13.8 -7.1 36.7 26.5 32.9 3.8 Conditions New Orders -16.2 17.2 39.2 43.0 -25.8 -4.8 39.8 26.2 26.1 13.6 Shipments 7.0 23.5 46.8 29.7 -6.2 10.2 43.5 29.8 21.0 22.5 Unfilled Orders -22.9 15.5 54.0 30.2 -14.7 -11.8 22.7 37.4 33.8 -11.1 Delivery Times -8.8 18.3 51.5 30.2 -11.9 -13.0 12.8 45.7 35.3 -22.4 Inventories -6.5 19.0 57.7 21.7 -2.7 -9.1 15.3 43.8 31.4 -16.1 Prices Paid 35.3 29.2 65.9 2.9 26.4 18.5 49.4 36.0 10.2 39.2 Prices Received 34.6 24.6 75.1 0.3 24.3 15.7 46.0 33.9 13.3 32.7 Number of Emp. 7.1 17.1 63.8 19.0 -1.8 11.1 28.9 55.2 10.5 18.4 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 1.4 12.1 66.8 21.0 -8.9 -12.1 14.4 64.2 15.1 -0.7 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 6.4 28.2 55.4 10.2 18.0 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through December 12, 2022. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: December 15, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. ET. November 2022 Note: Survey responses were collected from November 7 to November 14. Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline, according to the firms responding to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The general activity index declined further, the new orders index remained negative, and the shipments index remained positive but low. The employment index declined but continued to suggest overall hiring, and the price indexes continued to suggest overall increases. Although the survey’s future indexes rose slightly, they continued to suggest that the firms expect overall declines in activity and new orders six months from now. Current Indicators Remain Weak The diffusion index for current activity fell from a reading of -8.7 last month to -19.4 this month. This is the index’s third consecutive negative reading and fifth negative reading in the past six months. Nearly 36 percent of the firms reported decreases (up from 24 percent last month), exceeding the 17 percent of firms reporting increases (up from 15 percent). Most firms (47 percent) reported no change in current activity this month. The index for current new orders was little changed at -16.2, and the current shipments index edged down 2 points to 7.0. The firms reported overall increases in manufacturing employment, but the current employment index fell 21 points to 7.1. Although most firms (69 percent) reported steady employment levels, 19 percent of the firms reported higher employment, and 12 percent reported lower employment. The average workweek index declined from 10.4 to 1.4. Firms Continue to Report Overall Increases in Prices The indexes for prices paid and prices received continue to indicate overall price increases for inputs and the firms’ own goods. The prices paid diffusion index ticked down 1 point to 35.3. Nearly 47 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, and 12 percent reported decreases; 41 percent reported no change. The current prices received index moved up 4 points to 34.6, its highest reading since June. Almost 38 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods, 3 percent reported decreases, and 59 percent reported no change. Firms Expect Own Price Increases in Line with Inflation Rate In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). Regarding their own prices over the next year, the firms’ median forecast was for an expected increase of 4.8 percent, down slightly from 5.0 percent when this question was last asked in August. The firms reported a median increase of 7.5 percent in their own prices over the past year, down from 10.0 percent in August. The firms’ median forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year was 5.0 percent, down from 6.0 percent in August. Over the long run, the firms’ median forecast for the 10-year average inflation rate was 4.0 percent, up from 3.0 percent in August. Future Indicators Improve but Remain Negative The diffusion index for future general activity was negative for the sixth consecutive month but rose 8 points to -7.1. Nearly 37 percent of the firms expect a decrease in activity over the next six months, exceeding the 30 percent that expect an increase. The future new orders index rose 12 points but remained negative at -4.8, and the future shipments index increased from 4.7 to 10.2. The firms expect increases in employment overall, but the future employment index ticked down to 11.1. Expectations for price increases were less widespread, and both future price indexes were below their long-run averages. The future capital expenditures index edged up 2 points to 6.4. Summary Responses to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued overall declines in the region’s manufacturing sector this month. The indicators for current activity and new orders remained negative, and the shipments index remained positive but low. The firms continued to indicate overall increases in prices paid and received. The survey’s future indexes improved but continued to suggest that firms expect overall declines over the next six months. Special Questions (November 2022) Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous (Aug. 2022) For your firm: Forecast for next year (2022Q4-2023Q4) 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 4.8 5.0 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 5.0 5.0 Last year's price change (2021Q4-2022Q4) 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. 7.5 10.0 For U.S. consumers: 4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. 5.0 6.0 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2022-2031). 4.0 3.0 The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. Summary of Returns November 2022 November vs. October Six Months from Now vs. November Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -8.7 16.5 46.7 35.9 -19.4 -14.9 29.9 27.0 37.0 -7.1 Conditions New Orders -15.9 19.7 44.3 35.9 -16.2 -16.7 29.4 30.9 34.2 -4.8 Shipments 8.6 32.7 41.7 25.6 7.0 4.7 36.3 34.6 26.1 10.2 Unfilled Orders -22.5 15.4 46.4 38.3 -22.9 -23.5 24.2 35.6 36.0 -11.8 Delivery Times -12.6 10.1 71.1 18.8 -8.8 -6.3 15.2 53.4 28.1 -13.0 Inventories -1.7 14.8 62.6 21.3 -6.5 -8.8 17.9 47.2 27.0 -9.1 Prices Paid 36.3 46.9 41.2 11.6 35.3 25.8 39.4 35.9 21.0 18.5 Prices Received 30.8 37.7 59.2 3.1 34.6 23.4 39.0 37.0 23.3 15.7 Number of Emp. 28.5 18.7 68.9 11.6 7.1 12.2 27.4 52.9 16.3 11.1 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 10.4 15.9 69.5 14.5 1.4 -3.0 7.2 69.7 19.4 -12.1 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 4.4 19.5 67.4 13.1 6.4 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through November 14, 2022. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: November 17, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. ET. October 2022 Note: Survey responses were collected from October 10 to October 17. Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall this month, according to the firms responding to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity and new orders remained negative, and the shipments index was little changed at a low but positive reading. The firms continued to report higher employment on balance, and both price indexes indicate overall increases in prices. The survey’s future general activity indexes suggest that the surveyed firms expect declines overall over the next six months. Current Indicators Remain Weak The diffusion index for current general activity edged up 1 point but remained negative at -8.7 this month. This is the index’s fourth negative reading in the past five months. Nearly 24 percent of the firms reported decreases in general activity this month, while 15 percent reported increases; most firms (55 percent) reported no change. The index for new orders ticked up 2 points to -15.9, and the current shipments index was essentially unchanged at 8.6 in October, its lowest reading since May 2020. The firms continued to report increases in employment on balance. The employment index rose from 12.0 to 28.5 this month, more than offsetting its decline from last month. Just over 29 percent of the firms reported increases in employment (up from 15 percent last month), while 1 percent reported decreases (down from 3 percent); 63 percent reported steady employment levels (down from 83 percent). The average workweek index returned to positive territory, rising 14 points to 10.4. Firms Continue to Report Price Increases The indicators for prices paid and prices received rose modestly this month following steady declines through the summer. The prices paid index — which had fallen 55 points between April and September of this year — rose 7 points to 36.3. The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (46 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (10 percent); 43 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index edged up 1 point to 30.8. Nearly 41 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods this month, 10 percent reported decreases, and 44 percent reported no change. Firms Anticipate Higher Capital Expenditures Next Year For this month's special question, manufacturers were asked about their plans for different categories of capital expenditures next year (see Special Question). Although a higher share of firms expects to increase total capital spending rather than decrease total spending (37 percent versus 24 percent), the share of firms expecting to decrease spending exceeded the share of firms expecting to increase spending in four out of six categories (software, structure, computer and related hardware, and other). Future Indicators Deteriorate The diffusion index for future general activity fell from -3.9 to -14.9, its fifth consecutive negative reading. The share of firms expecting decreases in activity over the next six months (37 percent) exceeded the share expecting increases (22 percent); roughly one-third of the firms expect no change. The future new orders index fell 23 points to -16.7, its fourth negative reading in the past five months, while the future shipments index fell 16 points but remained positive at 4.7. The firms continued to expect overall increases in employment over the next six months, but the future employment index declined 10 points to 12.2. The future capital expenditures index was essentially unchanged at 4.4. Summary Responses to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued overall declines in regional manufacturing conditions this month. The indicators for current activity and new orders remained negative, while the shipments index remained stable but low. The firms continued to indicate overall increases in employment, and the current price indexes continue to suggest increases in prices on balance. The survey’s broad indicators for future activity deteriorated, suggesting that firms expect overall declines over the next six months. Special Questions (October 2022) Comparing 2023 with 2022, do you expect capital expenditures to be higher, the same, or lower for each of the following categories? Higher Same Lower Diffusion --------(% of reporters)------- Index Software 23.9 50.0 26.1 -2.2 Noncomputer equipment 37.0 45.7 17.4 19.6 Energy-saving investments 17.4 71.7 10.9 6.5 Computer and related hardware 17.4 60.9 21.7 -4.3 Structure 23.9 50.0 26.1 -2.2 Other 0.0 84.6 15.4 -15.4 Total capital spending 37.0 39.1 23.9 13.0 Summary of Returns October 2022 October vs. September Six Months from Now vs. October Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -9.9 15.2 54.5 23.9 -8.7 -3.9 22.0 33.1 36.9 -14.9 Conditions New Orders -17.6 16.4 50.0 32.3 -15.9 6.0 25.9 24.9 42.5 -16.7 Shipments 8.8 27.0 51.0 18.4 8.6 20.6 34.8 30.4 30.2 4.7 Unfilled Orders -28.5 6.7 61.1 29.2 -22.5 -22.3 12.6 47.7 36.1 -23.5 Delivery Times -18.2 14.7 56.6 27.3 -12.6 -23.7 15.6 57.3 21.8 -6.3 Inventories -4.8 15.7 62.2 17.3 -1.7 5.0 20.5 43.0 29.3 -8.8 Prices Paid 29.8 45.9 42.6 9.6 36.3 45.1 44.1 33.9 18.3 25.8 Prices Received 29.6 40.7 44.3 9.9 30.8 39.4 37.2 44.7 13.8 23.4 Number of Emp. 12.0 29.1 63.1 0.6 28.5 22.4 22.4 61.8 10.2 12.2 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -3.8 14.3 79.9 3.9 10.4 10.8 16.0 60.5 19.0 -3.0 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 4.6 20.7 55.6 16.3 4.4 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through October 17, 2022. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: October 20, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. ET. September 2022 Note: Survey responses were collected from September 6 to September 13. Manufacturing activity in the region declined overall in September, according to the firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicator for current activity returned to negative territory, the new orders index remained negative, and the shipments index also declined but remained positive. The firms reported continued increases in employment. The price indexes continue to indicate increases in prices overall. Expectations for growth over the next six months were subdued, as the future general activity index improved but remained negative. Current Indicators Weaken The diffusion index for current general activity returned to negative territory, falling from 6.2 in August to -9.9 this month. This is the index’s third negative reading in the past four months. Although most firms reported no change in activity (69 percent), the share of firms reporting decreases (20 percent) exceeded the share reporting increases (10 percent). The indicators for new orders and shipments also declined: The new orders index fell 13 points to -17.6, and the shipments index fell 16 points to its lowest reading since May 2020 but remained positive at 8.8. On balance, the firms continued to report increases in employment, but the employment index declined from 24.1 to 12.0. Nearly 15 percent of the firms reported increases in employment, compared with 3 percent that reported decreases; 83 percent reported no change. The average workweek index decreased 10 points to -3.8, its first negative reading since June 2020. Firms Continue to Report Overall Increases in Prices The indicators for prices paid and prices received remained positive but indicate less widespread increases in prices compared with previous months. The prices paid index declined for the fifth consecutive month, down 14 points to 29.8, its lowest reading since December 2020 and near its long-run nonrecession average. Almost 41 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 11 percent reported decreases; 48 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index moved up 6 points to 29.6. Nearly 34 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods this month, 4 percent reported decreases, and 62 percent reported no change. Firms Report Higher Production, Steady Capacity Utilization In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the third quarter ending this month compared with the second quarter of 2022 (see Special Questions). The share of firms reporting expected increases in third-quarter production (56 percent) exceeded the share reporting decreases (22 percent). The firms were also asked about their current capacity utilization rate for the current quarter and one year ago as well as factors constraining capacity utilization in the current quarter. The median current capacity utilization rate reported among the responding firms was 70 to 80 percent, the same as what was reported for one year ago. Regarding factors constraining capacity utilization in the current quarter, nearly all firms reported labor supply and supply chains as constraints to some degree, with comparable shares indicating each factor significantly constrained utilization (37 percent and 34 percent, respectively). Looking ahead over the next three months, 27 percent of the firms expect supply chain impacts to improve, 54 percent expect them to stay the same, and 20 percent expect them to worsen. Future Indicators Remain Low The diffusion index for future general activity rose 7 points but remained negative at -3.9, its fourth consecutive negative reading. The share of firms expecting decreases in activity (30 percent) slightly exceeded the share of firms expecting increases (26 percent); 37 percent expect no change. The future new orders index recorded its first positive reading since May, rising 14 points to 6.0, and the future shipments index increased from 12.0 to 20.6. The firms continued to expect overall increases in employment over the next six months, but the future employment index ticked down 3 points to 22.4. About one-third of the firms expect to increase employment in their manufacturing plants over the next six months; 11 percent anticipate employment declines. The future capital expenditures index fell from 18.0 to 4.6, offsetting its increase from last month. Summary Responses to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest overall declines for the region’s manufacturing sector. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all declined, with the former two registering negative readings. The indicator for employment declined but continues to suggest overall increases. The firms reported price increases overall; however, the price indexes suggest prices are less widespread than in the previous month. The survey’s broad indicators for future activity improved but indicate subdued expectations for overall growth over the next six months. Special Questions (September 2022) 1. How will your firm’s total production for the third quarter of 2022 compare with that of the second quarter of 2022? % of firms An increase of: 10% or more 7.3 5-10% 24.4 0-5% 24.4 Subtotal 56.1 No change 22.0 A decline of: 0-5% 14.6 5-10% 2.4 10% or more 4.9 Subtotal 21.9 2. Which of the following best characterizes your plant's percentage capacity utilization currently (2022:Q3) and one year ago (2021:Q3)? 2022:Q3 2021:Q3 Capacity Utilization Rate of reporters % of reporters Less than 30% 0.0 0.0 30-40% 0.0 0.0 40-50% 0.0 2.5 50-60% 4.9 15.0 60-70% 17.1 17.5 70-80% 51.2 30.0 80-90% 12.2 22.5 90-100% 14.6 12.5 Median Utilization Rate 70-80 70-80 3. In the current quarter, to what degree have the following factors acted as constraints on capacity utilization? Not at all Slightly Moderately Significantly (%) (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 70.7 26.8 2.4 0.0 Energy markets 52.5 20.0 22.5 5.0 Financial capital 95.0 2.5 2.5 0.0 Labor supply 9.8 24.4 29.3 36.6 Supply chains 2.4 29.3 34.1 34.1 Other factors 76.5 11.8 11.8 0.0 4. Over the next three months, how do you expect the impacts of the following factors as constraints on capacity utilization to change? Worsen Stay the same Improve (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 10.5 73.7 15.8 Energy markets 27.5 70.0 2.5 Financial capital 7.5 90.0 2.5 Labor supply 19.5 61.0 19.5 Supply chains 19.5 53.7 26.8 Other factors 4.8 90.5 4.8 September 2022 September vs. August Six Months from Now vs. September Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 6.2 10.1 69.4 20.0 -9.9 -10.6 26.0 37.3 29.9 -3.9 Conditions New Orders -5.1 9.8 62.8 27.4 -17.6 -8.3 37.6 29.9 31.6 6.0 Shipments 24.8 23.1 60.0 14.2 8.8 12.0 40.2 36.9 19.5 20.6 Unfilled Orders -1.8 4.8 61.9 33.3 -28.5 -38.2 21.9 30.5 44.2 -22.3 Delivery Times 2.7 5.4 70.6 23.6 -18.2 -27.2 5.8 60.5 29.5 -23.7 Inventories 2.3 9.6 71.7 14.4 -4.8 3.7 24.7 52.6 19.7 5.0 Prices Paid 43.6 41.1 47.6 11.3 29.8 47.8 58.7 22.9 13.6 45.1 Prices Received 23.3 33.9 61.8 4.3 29.6 45.0 52.3 29.1 12.9 39.4 Number of Emp. 24.1 14.7 82.6 2.7 12.0 25.1 33.2 52.5 10.8 22.4 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 6.1 3.1 90.0 6.9 -3.8 4.4 16.6 74.7 5.8 10.8 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 18.0 19.4 60.0 14.8 4.6 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through September 13, 2022. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: September 15, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. ET. August 2022 Note: Survey responses were collected from August 8 to August 15. Manufacturing activity held mostly steady on balance, according to the firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Most of the survey’s indicators rose from last month. Although the general activity index turned positive, it was low, and the new orders index remained negative. The employment index increased, while the price indexes continued to decline but remained elevated. The survey’s future indexes rose slightly but continue to suggest that the firms expect overall declines six months from now. Current Indicators Are Mixed The diffusion index for current activity returned to positive territory in August after two consecutive negative readings, rising 19 points to 6.2. Most firms (47 percent) reported no change in current activity this month, while the share of firms reporting increases (26 percent) exceeded the share reporting decreases (20 percent). The index for current new orders climbed 20 points but remained negative for the third consecutive month at -5.1, and the current shipments index rose 10 points to 24.8. On balance, the firms reported increases in manufacturing employment, and the current employment index increased 5 points to 24.1. Although most firms (68 percent) reported steady employment levels, 28 percent of the firms reported higher employment, while 4 percent reported lower employment. The average workweek index was little changed at 6.1. Price Indexes Continue to Decline but Remain Elevated The indexes for prices paid and prices received continue to indicate widespread price increases but declined for the fourth consecutive month. The prices paid diffusion index decreased 9 points to 43.6, its lowest reading since December 2020. Fifty-six percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, and 12 percent reported decreases; 32 percent reported no change. The current prices received index moved down 7 points to 23.3, its lowest reading since February 2021. Nearly 31 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods, 8 percent reported decreases, and 62 percent reported no change. Firms Expect Own Price Increases to Lag Inflation Rate In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). Regarding their own prices over the next year, the firms’ median forecast was for an expected increase of 5.0 percent, unchanged from when this question was last asked in May. The firms reported a median increase of 10.0 percent in their own prices over the past year, up from 6.0 percent in May. The firms’ median forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year was 6.0 percent, down from 6.5 percent in May. Over the long run, the firms’ median forecast for the 10-year average inflation rate was 3.0 percent, down from 3.5 percent in May. Future Indicators Remain Weak The diffusion index for future general activity remained negative for the third consecutive month but rose 8 points to -10.6. Nearly 29 percent of the firms expect a decrease in activity over the next six months, exceeding the 18 percent that expect an increase; 46 percent expect no change. The future new orders index moved up 4 points but remained negative at -8.3, and the future shipments index inched down from 12.8 to 12.0. The future employment index increased 9 points to 25.1. The future capital expenditures index rose 14 points to 18.0, after falling to nearly a 10-year low last month; almost 27 percent of the firms expect to increase spending (up from 10 percent last month). Summary Responses to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest steady conditions, on balance, in the region’s manufacturing sector. The indicator for current activity returned to positive, but low, territory, while the new orders index rose but remained negative. The firms continued to indicate overall increases in employment and widespread increases in prices paid and received. The survey’s future indexes suggest tempered expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (August 2022) Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous (May 2022) For your firm: Forecast for next year (2022Q3-2023Q3) 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 5.0 5.0 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 5.0 5.0 Last year's price change (2021Q3-2022Q3) 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. 10.0 6.0 For U.S. consumers: 4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. 6.0 6.5 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2022-2031). 3.0 3.5 The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. Summary of Returns August 2022 August vs. July Six Months from Now vs. August Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -12.3 26.2 46.9 19.9 6.2 -18.6 18.2 45.8 28.8 -10.6 Conditions New Orders -24.8 28.1 38.8 33.1 -5.1 -12.4 21.5 46.1 29.9 -8.3 Shipments 14.8 40.3 44.2 15.5 24.8 12.8 28.3 54.2 16.3 12.0 Unfilled Orders -10.4 25.3 47.6 27.1 -1.8 -29.6 6.2 47.9 44.4 -38.2 Delivery Times -10.2 18.4 66.0 15.7 2.7 -32.9 9.3 54.1 36.5 -27.2 Inventories -9.3 20.6 60.5 18.3 2.3 -6.8 24.8 53.0 21.1 3.7 Prices Paid 52.2 56.0 31.5 12.4 43.6 45.0 60.7 25.0 12.9 47.8 Prices Received 30.3 30.9 61.6 7.5 23.3 34.6 53.6 36.9 8.6 45.0 Number of Emp. 19.4 27.9 68.3 3.8 24.1 16.5 33.8 57.4 8.8 25.1 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 6.4 6.1 93.0 0.0 6.1 3.4 13.2 74.4 8.8 4.4 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 4.4 26.8 59.9 8.8 18.0 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through August 15, 2022. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: August 18, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. ET. July 2022 Note: Survey responses were collected from July 11 to July 18. Manufacturing activity in the region declined overall in July, according to the firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity and new orders declined further into negative territory. The shipments index was positive and rose slightly, while the indexes for inventories and unfilled orders were negative. The employment indicators declined but remained positive. Both price indexes fell but remain elevated. The future indicators suggest that firms expect overall declines in activity and new orders but increases in shipments and employment over the next six months. Most Current Indicators Decline The diffusion index for current general activity decreased for the fourth consecutive month, falling 9 points to -12.3 in July. Although most firms reported no change in activity (61 percent), the share of firms reporting decreases (24 percent) exceeded the share of firms reporting increases (12 percent). The index for new orders declined for the second consecutive month, from -12.4 to -24.8. However, the current shipments index rose from 10.8 to 14.8. The indexes for current inventories and unfilled orders were negative, at -9.3 and -10.4, respectively. On balance, the firms continued to report increases in employment, but the employment index declined 9 points to 19.4, its lowest reading since May 2021. Nearly 24 percent of the firms reported employment increases, while 4 percent reported decreases; 72 percent reported no change in employment levels. The average workweek index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, to 6.4. Price Increases Remain Widespread The indicators for prices paid and prices received declined for the third consecutive month but continued to suggest widespread price increases. The prices paid index fell 12 points to 52.2, its lowest reading since January 2021. Nearly 56 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 3 percent reported decreases; 40 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index dropped 19 points to 30.3. Almost 37 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods this month, 6 percent reported decreases, and 57 percent reported no change. Firms Expect Highest Increases for Energy, Raw Materials In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked about changes in wages and compensation over the past three months as well as their updated expectations for changes in various input and labor costs for the current year (see Special Questions). Nearly 79 percent of the firms indicated wages and compensation costs had increased over the past three months, 21 percent reported no change, and none reported decreases. Most firms have reported adjusting their 2022 budgets for wages and compensation since the beginning of the year, with 57 percent noting they are planning to increase wages and compensation by more than originally planned and 14 percent noting they are planning to increase wages and compensation sooner than originally planned. The firms still expect higher costs across all categories of expenses in 2022, but median expected increases were unchanged or lower than when this question was last asked in April for most categories. Responses indicate a median expected increase of 7.5 to 10 percent for energy and for raw materials and of 5 to 7.5 percent for intermediate goods, health benefits, and total compensation (wages plus benefits). Future Indicators Remain Weak The diffusion index for future general activity decreased 12 points to -18.6, its lowest reading since December 1979. More than 35 percent of the firms expect decreases in future activity (down from 42 percent last month), compared with 17 percent that expect increases (down from 36 percent); 40 percent of the firms expect no change in future activity (up from 19 percent last month). The future new orders index declined 5 points to -12.4, while the future shipments index rose 9 points to 12.8. The future employment index rose 6 points to 16.5. Nearly 56 percent of the firms expect steady employment levels over the next six months, 29 percent of the firms expect to increase employment, and 13 percent expect employment declines. The future capital expenditures index fell 7 points to 4.4, its lowest reading since March 2013, as 81 percent of the firms expect no change in spending over the next six months and only 10 percent expect increases. Summary Responses to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest overall declines in regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicators for current activity and new orders remained negative, while the shipments index rose slightly. The firms continued to indicate overall increases in employment and widespread increases in prices. The indicators for future general activity and new orders remained negative, suggesting that respondents expect overall declines over the next six months. Special Questions (July 2022) 1. How have wages and compensation changed at your firm over the past three months? Percent (%) Increased 78.6 No change 21.4 Decreased 0.0 2. Since the beginning of the year, have you adjusted your budget for wages and compensation for 2022?* Yes, and we are planning to increase wages and compensation by more than originally planned. 57.1 Yes, and we are planning to increase wages and compensation sooner than originally planned. 14.3 No, we have not needed to make adjustments. 31.0 Other 2.4 *Percentages do not sum to 100 because more than one option could be selected. 3. What percentage change in costs do you now expect for the following categories over all of 2022?** Energy Other Inter- Wages Health Non- Wages + (%) Raw mediate (%) Benefits health Health Materials goods (%) Benefits Benefits + (%) (%) (%) Nonhealth Benefits (%) Decline of more than 1% 0.0 5.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 2.5 0.0 No change 7.5 2.5 6.5 4.9 15.0 22.5 5.1 Increase of 1-2% 5.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 2.5 10.0 2.6 Increase of 2-3% 0.0 5.0 6.5 9.8 5.0 12.5 2.6 Increase of 3-4% 5.0 0.0 9.7 12.2 10.0 12.5 10.3 Increase of 4-5% 15.0 5.0 12.9 22.0 15.0 15.0 15.4 Increase of 5-7.5% 5.0 20.0 35.5 22.0 15.0 10.0 17.9 Increase of 7.5-10% 15.0 12.5 16.1 12.2 20.0 10.0 23.1 Increase of 10-12.5% 17.5 12.5 3.2 9.8 12.5 2.5 12.8 Increase of more than 12.5% 2.5 17.5 3.2 2.4 2.5 0.0 2.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Median Exp. Change 7.5-10% 7.5-10% 5-7.5% 4-5% 5-7.5% 3-4% 5-7.5% Median Exp. Change (April 2022) 7.5-10% 10-12.5% 7.5-10% 4-5% 4-5% 2-3% 5-7.5% **The firms responded to more detailed changes than shown in the provided ranges. Summary of Returns July 2022 July vs. June Six Months from Now vs. July Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -3.3 11.8 61.0 24.2 -12.3 -6.8 16.6 40.0 35.2 -18.6 Conditions New Orders -12.4 12.0 51.0 36.8 -24.8 -7.4 20.7 43.2 33.1 -12.4 Shipments 10.8 29.8 55.0 15.0 14.8 3.6 33.0 42.2 20.1 12.8 Unfilled Orders -7.0 15.8 56.8 26.1 -10.4 -32.0 8.1 49.3 37.8 -29.6 Delivery Times 9.9 19.1 51.7 29.2 -10.2 -36.3 9.2 45.9 42.1 -32.9 Inventories -2.2 8.6 70.7 17.9 -9.3 -1.7 15.4 60.7 22.2 -6.8 Prices Paid 64.5 55.6 40.4 3.4 52.2 58.5 52.8 34.1 7.8 45.0 Prices Received 49.2 36.5 57.4 6.1 30.3 46.7 42.4 47.1 7.7 34.6 Number of Emp. 28.1 23.7 71.9 4.3 19.4 10.5 29.4 55.5 12.8 16.5 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 11.8 13.0 80.5 6.6 6.4 6.4 18.0 64.1 14.7 3.4 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 11.7 9.8 81.4 5.4 4.4 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through July 18, 2022. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: July 21, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. ET. June 2022 Note: Survey responses were collected from June 6 to June 13. Manufacturing activity in the region weakened, according to the firms responding to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicators for current activity and new orders turned negative, and the shipments index also declined but remained positive. However, the firms reported continued increases in employment. Both price indexes declined but remained elevated. Expectations for growth over the next six months deteriorated, as the future general activity, new orders, and shipment indexes fell sharply. Current Indicators Weaken The diffusion index for current general activity declined for the third consecutive month, falling 6 points to -3.3. This is the index’s first negative reading since May 2020. Although most firms reported no change in activity (64 percent), the share of firms reporting decreases (20 percent) exceeded the share reporting increases (16 percent). The indicators for new orders and shipments decreased more sharply: The new orders index fell 35 points to -12.4, and the shipments index fell 25 points but remained positive at 10.8. On balance, the firms continued to report increases in employment, and the employment index moved up from 25.5 to 28.1. More than 31 percent of the firms reported increases in employment, compared with 3 percent that reported decreases; 66 percent reported no change. The average workweek index decreased 4 points, to 11.8. Price Increases Remain Widespread, but Indexes Decline The indicators for prices paid and prices received continue to indicate widespread price increases but decreased this month. The prices paid index declined for the second consecutive month, down 14 points to 64.5. More than 70 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 6 percent reported decreases; 24 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index edged down from 51.7 to 49.2. Nearly 52 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods this month, 2 percent reported decreases, and 46 percent reported no change. Firms Report Higher Production and Capacity Utilization In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the second quarter ending this month compared with the first quarter of 2022 (see Special Questions). The share of firms reporting expected increases in first-quarter production (72 percent) far exceeded the share reporting decreases (9 percent). The firms were also asked about their current capacity utilization rate for the current quarter and one year ago as well as factors constraining capacity utilization in the current quarter. Relative to last year, a higher share of firms reported a utilization rate of 90 to 100 percent (16 percent versus 7 percent, respectively). The median current capacity utilization rate reported among the responding firms was 80 to 90 percent, slightly higher than what was reported for one year ago. Regarding factors constraining capacity utilization in the current quarter, nearly all firms reported labor supply and supply chains as constraints to some degree, with similar shares indicating each factor significantly constrained utilization (40 percent and 42 percent, respectively). Looking ahead over the next three months, the firms were evenly split (21 percent each) over whether supply chain impacts would worsen or improve. Nearly 55 percent of the firms reported that energy markets were not acting as a constraint in the current quarter; however, 44 percent expected the impacts from energy markets to worsen over the next three months. Future Indicators Decline The diffusion index for future general activity decreased for the fifth consecutive month, to -6.8, its first negative reading since December 2008. Almost 42 percent of the firms expect activity to decrease over the next six months (up from 22 percent last month), while 36 percent expect activity to increase (up from 24 percent). The future new orders index declined 24 points, to -7.4, and the future shipments index fell 29 points, to 3.6. The firms continued to expect overall increases in employment over the next six months; however, the future employment index fell 19 points to 10.5. Over 20 percent of the firms expect to increase employment in their manufacturing plants over the next six months; 10 percent anticipate employment declines. Summary Responses to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest weakened conditions for the region’s manufacturing sector. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all declined, with the former two turning negative, but the indicator for employment moved higher. The price indexes declined but continue to suggest widespread increases in prices. The survey’s future indexes indicate deterioration in the respondents’ expectations for growth over the next six months, as higher shares of firms expect decreases compared with last month. Special Questions (June 2022) 1. How will your firm’s total production for the second quarter of 2022 compare with that of the first quarter of 2022? % of firms An increase of: 10% or more 16.3 5-10% 30.2 0-5% 25.6 Subtotal 72.1 No change 18.6 A decline of: 0-5% 7.0 5-10% 2.3 10% or more 0.0 Subtotal 9.3 2. Which of the following best characterizes your plant's percentage capacity utilization currently (2022:Q2) and one year ago (2021:Q2)? 2022:Q2 2021:Q2 % of reporters % of reporters Capacity Utilization Rate Less than 30% 0.0 2.3 30–40% 2.3 2.3 40–50% 2.3 2.3 50–60% 4.7 4.7 60–70% 14.0 14.0 70–80% 25.6 27.9 80–90% 34.9 39.5 90–100% 16.3 7.0 Median Utilization Rate 80-90 70-80 3. In the current quarter, to what degree have the following factors acted as constraints on capacity utilization? Not at all Slightly Moderately Significantly (%) (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 64.3 26.2 7.1 2.4 Energy markets 54.8 19.0 14.3 11.9 Financial capital 82.9 14.6 2.4 0.0 Labor supply 9.3 23.3 27.9 39.5 Supply chains 7.0 20.9 30.2 41.9 Other factors 54.5 13.6 0.0 31.8 4. Over the next three months, how do you expect the impacts of the following factors as constraints on capacity utilization to change? Worsen Stay the same Improve (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 2.5 85.0 12.5 Energy markets 44.2 51.2 4.7 Financial capital 17.9 79.5 2.6 Labor supply 20.9 69.8 9.3 Supply chains 20.9 58.1 20.9 Other factors 0.0 90.0 10.0 June 2022 June vs. May Six Months from Now vs. June Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 2.6 16.3 64.1 19.6 -3.3 2.5 35.7 19.4 42.4 -6.8 Conditions New Orders 22.1 16.5 53.8 28.9 -12.4 16.1 32.3 25.7 39.7 -7.4 Shipments 35.3 27.3 56.1 16.5 10.8 32.1 36.2 27.8 32.5 3.6 Unfilled Orders 17.9 19.5 54.0 26.5 -7.0 -24.5 9.9 46.4 41.9 -32.0 Delivery Times 17.5 21.0 67.8 11.1 9.9 -29.1 5.1 50.1 41.4 -36.3 Inventories 3.2 16.0 65.8 18.2 -2.2 4.6 16.8 62.6 18.5 -1.7 Prices Paid 78.9 70.1 24.3 5.6 64.5 59.4 61.8 32.0 3.3 58.5 Prices Received 51.7 51.5 45.5 2.3 49.2 58.9 53.7 35.8 7.0 46.7 Number of Emp. 25.5 31.3 65.5 3.2 28.1 29.2 20.1 67.9 9.6 10.5 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 16.1 15.5 79.1 3.7 11.8 11.7 13.9 70.3 7.5 6.4 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 9.6 18.9 70.1 7.2 11.7 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through June 13, 2022. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: June 16, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. ET. May 2022 Note: Survey responses were collected from May 9 to May 16. Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand overall this month, according to the firms responding to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current general activity index declined, while the indicators for new orders and shipments rose. The employment index decreased, and the price indexes remained elevated but edged down. The survey’s future indexes remained positive but reflect muted optimism for growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Move in Mixed Directions The diffusion index for current activity fell 15 points to 2.6 in May, its lowest reading in two years. Most firms (57 percent) reported no change in current activity this month, while the share of firms reporting increases (22 percent) narrowly exceeded the share reporting decreases (20 percent). The index for new orders rose 4 points to a reading of 22.1, and the current shipments index climbed 16 points to 35.3, its highest reading since October 2020. On balance, the firms reported increases in manufacturing employment, but the current employment index fell 16 points to 25.5. Although most firms (71 percent) reported steady employment levels, almost 27 percent of the firms reported higher employment (down from 42 percent last month), while only 1 percent reported lower employment (similar to last month). The average workweek index decreased 5 points to 16.1. Price Indexes Remain Elevated The firms continued to report increases in prices for inputs and their own goods. The prices paid diffusion index - which hit a near-43-year high last month - declined 6 points to 78.9. More than 81 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, and 17 percent reported no change. The current prices received index edged down 3 points to 51.7. Nearly 52 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods, and 47 percent reported no change. Firms Expect Own Price Increases to Lag Inflation Rate In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). The firms’ median forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year was 6.5 percent, up from 5.0 percent from when the question was last asked in February. Regarding their own prices over the next year, the firms’ median forecast was for an increase of 5.0 percent, unchanged from February and below the median reported own price change over the past year of 6.0 percent. The firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 5.0 percent over the next four quarters, the same as in February. The firms’ median forecast for the long-run (10-year average) inflation rate was 3.5 percent, up from 3.0 percent in February. Future Indicators Remain Positive but Are Relatively Low Although the firms continued to expect growth over the next six months, most indexes are below readings recorded from the past two years. The diffusion index for future general activity declined from a reading of 8.2 in April to 2.5 in May, its lowest reading in more than 13 years. Over 24 percent of the firms expect growth over the next six months (down from 37 percent last month), 22 percent expect a decrease in activity (down from 29 percent), and 46 percent expect no change (up from 31 percent). The future new orders index climbed 12 points to 16.1, and the future shipments index edged up 2 points to 32.1. The future employment index decreased 10 points to 29.2; about one-third of the firms expect to increase employment. The future capital expenditures index fell 10 points to 9.6, its lowest reading since February 2016, suggesting less widespread expectations for capital spending. Summary Responses to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued overall expansion for the region’s manufacturing sector. Although the indicator for current activity fell, the new orders and shipments indexes rose. The firms continued to indicate overall increases in employment and widespread increases in prices paid and received. The survey’s future indexes suggest muted optimism for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (May 2022) Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous (Feb. 2022) For your firm: Forecast for next year (2022Q2-2023Q2) 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 5.0 5.0 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 5.0 5.0 Last year's price change (2021Q2-2022Q2) 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. 6.0 5.0 For U.S. consumers: 4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. 6.5 5.0 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2022-2031). 3.5 3.0 The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. May 2022 May vs. April Six Months from Now vs. May Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 17.6 22.2 56.7 19.7 2.6 8.2 24.4 45.8 22.0 2.5 Conditions New Orders 17.8 36.3 49.4 14.2 22.1 3.7 37.3 39.8 21.2 16.1 Shipments 19.1 45.9 43.4 10.7 35.3 29.9 40.7 47.8 8.6 32.1 Unfilled Orders 5.7 27.4 63.1 9.5 17.9 -13.4 9.5 50.6 34.0 -24.5 Delivery Times 17.9 24.3 68.8 6.8 17.5 -19.1 5.7 55.6 34.8 -29.1 Inventories 11.9 19.5 61.4 16.3 3.2 17.3 23.8 49.9 19.2 4.6 Prices Paid 84.6 81.1 16.5 2.2 78.9 70.1 62.6 29.8 3.3 59.4 Prices Received 55.0 51.9 47.0 0.2 51.7 62.4 62.5 31.0 3.6 58.9 Number of Emp. 41.4 26.7 70.7 1.2 25.5 38.7 33.4 60.4 4.2 29.2 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 20.8 19.5 77.1 3.4 16.1 -2.6 19.7 69.0 8.1 11.7 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 19.9 27.0 52.3 17.4 9.6 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through May 16, 2022. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: May 19, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. ET. April 2022 Note: Survey responses were collected from April 11 to April 18. Manufacturing activity continued to expand in the region, according to the firms responding to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for current general activity, shipments, and new orders declined from last month’s readings but remained positive. The employment index and both price indexes edged higher and remain elevated. The future indicators for general activity and new orders fell sharply, but overall the firms continued to expect growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Remain Positive The diffusion index for current general activity decreased 10 points to 17.6 in April, mostly offsetting its increase from last month. More than 34 percent of the firms reported increases in current activity this month, while 17 percent reported decreases. The index for new orders declined 8 points to 17.8, and the current shipments index fell 11 points to 19.1. On balance, the firms continued to report increases in employment. The employment index - which reached an all-time high last month - inched up higher, to 41.4. Although a majority of responding firms (56 percent) reported steady employment levels, the share reporting increases (42 percent) far exceeded the share reporting decreases (1 percent). The average workweek index ticked down from 21.4 to 20.8. Price Increases Remain Widespread The indicators for prices paid and prices received continued to suggest widespread price increases and inched higher this month. The prices paid index rose 4 points to 84.6, its highest reading since June 1979. More than 85 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 1 percent reported decreases; 11 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index edged up from 54.4 to 55.0. Almost 57 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods this month, 2 percent reported decreases, and 36 percent reported no change. Firms Expect Highest Cost Increases for Raw Materials In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked about changes in wages and compensation over the past three months as well as their updated expectations for changes in various input and labor costs for the coming year (see Special Questions). Eighty percent of the firms indicated wages and compensation costs had increased over the past three months, 20 percent reported no change, and none reported decreases. The majority of firms have reported adjusting their 2022 budgets for wages and compensation since the beginning of the year, with 65 percent noting they are planning to increase wages and compensation by more than originally planned and 33 percent noting they are planning to increase wages and compensation sooner than originally planned. The firms still expect higher costs across all categories of expenses in 2022: Responses indicate a median expected increase of 10 to 12.5 percent for raw materials and of 7.5 to 10 percent for energy and for intermediate goods, higher than when this question was asked back in January. The median expected change for total compensation (wages plus benefits) was unchanged at 5 to 7.5 percent. Future Indicators Decline but Remain Positive The diffusion index for future general activity decreased 15 points to 8.2, its lowest reading since December 2008. More than 37 percent of the firms expect increases in future activity (down from 41 percent last month) compared with 29 percent that expect decreases (up from 18 percent). The future new orders index fell 18 points to 3.7, while the future shipments index edged down 1 point to 29.9. The future employment index ticked down 2 points but remains elevated. Nearly 55 percent of the firms expect steady employment levels over the next six months, 40 percent of the firms expect to increase employment, and 1 percent expect employment declines. Summary Responses to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion in regional manufacturing conditions this month. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments all decreased but remained positive. The firms continued to indicate overall increases in employment and widespread increases in prices. The indicators for future general activity and new orders fell notably, but the respondents continue to expect growth overall over the next six months. Special Questions (April 2022) 1. How have wages and compensation changed at your firm over the past three months? Percent (%) Increased 80.0 No change 20.0 Decreased 0.0 2. Since the beginning of the year, have you adjusted your budget for wages and compensation for 2022?* Yes, and we are planning to increase wages and compensation by more than originally planned. 65.2 Yes, and we are planning to increase wages and compensation sooner than originally planned. 32.6 No, we have not needed to make adjustments. 26.1 Other 2.2 *Percentages do not sum to 100 because more than one option could be selected. 3. What percentage change in costs do you now expect for the following categories over all of 2022?** Energy Other Inter- Wages Health Non- Wages + (%) Raw mediate (%) Benefits health Health Materials goods (%) Benefits Benefits + (%) (%) (%) Nonhealth Benefits (%) Decline of more than 1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 No change 4.5 0.0 2.7 2.2 17.8 34.1 4.9 Increase of 1-2% 2.3 0.0 5.4 0.0 4.4 9.1 0.0 Increase of 2-3% 2.3 0.0 2.7 11.1 11.1 11.4 4.9 Increase of 3-4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 17.8 6.7 9.1 7.3 Increase of 4-5% 13.6 11.1 16.2 17.8 20.0 22.7 26.8 Increase of 5-7.5% 9.1 15.6 21.6 31.1 11.1 4.5 19.5 Increase of 7.5-10% 18.2 17.8 27.0 6.7 11.1 4.5 19.5 Increase of 10-12.5% 18.2 17.8 18.9 6.7 11.1 0.0 7.3 Increase of more than 12.5% 0.0 8.9 2.7 2.2 4.4 4.5 2.4 ------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------ Median Exp. Change 7.5-10% 10-12.5% 7.5-10% 4-5% 4-5% 2-3% 5-7.5% Median Exp. Change (January 2022) 5-7.5% 7.5-10% 5-7.5% 5-7.5% 5-7.5% 3-4% 5-7.5% **The firms responded to more detailed changes than shown in the provided ranges. April 2022 April vs. March Six Months from Now vs. April Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 27.4 34.2 45.2 16.6 17.6 22.7 37.4 31.0 29.2 8.2 Conditions New Orders 25.8 37.8 40.8 20.0 17.8 22.0 32.7 36.0 29.0 3.7 Shipments 30.2 34.9 47.8 15.8 19.1 30.6 44.9 34.1 15.0 29.9 Unfilled Orders 21.0 25.3 54.1 19.6 5.7 -15.9 19.7 43.9 33.1 -13.4 Delivery Times 39.7 28.9 57.2 11.0 17.9 -6.2 11.0 56.2 30.1 -19.1 Inventories 0.5 24.7 57.9 12.8 11.9 30.8 31.9 44.0 14.6 17.3 Prices Paid 81.0 85.1 11.1 0.5 84.6 71.3 73.9 21.2 3.8 70.1 Prices Received 54.4 56.6 36.2 1.7 55.0 68.5 67.0 23.0 4.5 62.4 Number of Emp. 38.9 42.2 56.0 0.7 41.4 40.7 39.5 54.6 0.8 38.7 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 21.4 23.0 72.9 2.2 20.8 14.5 12.8 69.5 15.3 -2.6 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 24.8 26.3 62.8 6.5 19.9 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through April 18, 2022. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: April 21, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. ET. March 2022 Note: Survey responses were collected from March 7 to March 14. Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to the firms responding to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, shipments, and new orders all rose after declining last month. The employment index and both price indexes climbed higher and remain elevated. The survey’s future general activity, new orders, and shipments indexes moderated, but the surveyed firms remained generally optimistic about growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Improve The diffusion index for current general activity rose 11 points to 27.4 this month, its highest reading since November 2021. More than 40 percent of the firms reported increases (up from 26 percent last month) in current activity this month, while 13 percent reported decreases (up from 10 percent). The current shipments and new orders indexes also rose to their highest readings since November 2021: The current shipments index increased 17 points to 30.2, and the new orders index increased 12 points to 25.8. On balance, the firms continued to report increases in employment, and the employment index rose to 38.9, its highest reading ever. Almost 44 percent of the firms reported increases in employment, compared with 5 percent that reported decreases; 48 percent reported no change. The average workweek index rose 11 points, to 21.4. Price Increases Become More Widespread The indicators for prices paid and prices received continue to indicate widespread price increases and moved higher this month. The prices paid index climbed 12 points to 81.0, its highest reading since June 1979. More than 87 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 6 percent reported decreases; 7 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index increased 5 points to 54.4. Nearly 57 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods this month, 2 percent reported decreases, and 38 percent reported no change. Firms Report Higher Production and Capacity Utilization In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the first quarter ending this month compared with the fourth quarter of 2021 (see Special Questions). The share of firms reporting expected increases in first-quarter production (71 percent) was greater than the share reporting decreases (12 percent). The firms were also asked about their current capacity utilization rate for the current quarter and one year ago as well as factors constraining capacity utilization in the current quarter. Relative to last year, a higher share of firms reported a utilization rate of 90 to 100 percent (17 percent vs. 3 percent), and a smaller share reported a rate of 60 to 70 percent (10 percent vs. 28 percent). However, the median current capacity utilization rate reported among the responding firms was 70 to 80 percent, the same as the rate reported for one year ago. Regarding factors constraining capacity utilization in the current quarter, nearly all firms reported labor supply and supply chains as constraints to some degree, with 56 percent of the firms indicating that supply chains significantly constrained utilization. Looking ahead over the next three months, 44 percent of the respondents expect the impact of supply chains to worsen, while 23 percent expect it to improve. Nearly two-thirds of the firms reported the energy markets were not acting as a constraint in the current quarter; however, just over two-thirds expected the impacts from energy markets to worsen over the next three months. Future Indicators Remain Positive The diffusion index for future general activity decreased 5 points to 22.7 but remains slightly above its average over the past seven months. Almost 41 percent of the firms expect activity to increase over the next six months, while 18 percent expect activity to decrease. The future new orders index declined 3 points, and the future shipments index fell 14 points. The firms continued to expect overall increases in employment over the next six months, and the future employment index rose 4 points to 40.7. Nearly 42 percent of the firms expect to increase employment in their manufacturing plants over the next six months; only 1 percent anticipate employment declines. Summary Responses to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion for the region’s manufacturing sector. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments rose from their February readings, and the employment index reached an all-time high. The price indexes remain elevated and continue to suggest widespread increases in prices. The survey’s future indexes indicate that respondents continue to expect growth over the next six months. Special Questions (March 2022) 1. How will your firm’s total production for the first quarter of 2022 compare with that of the fourth quarter of 2021? % of firms An increase of: 10% or more 22.0 5-10% 39.0 0-5% 9.8 Subtotal 70.7 No change 17.1 A decline of: 0-5% 4.9 5-10% 0.0 10% or more 7.3 Subtotal 12.2 2. Which of the following best characterizes your plant's percentage capacity utilization currently (2022:Q1) and one year ago (2021:Q1)? 2022:Q1 2021:Q1 % of reporters % of reporters Capacity Utilization Rate Less than 30% 0.0 2.5 30–40% 0.0 5.0 40–50% 4.9 2.5 50–60% 9.8 10.0 60–70% 9.8 27.5 70–80% 36.6 35.0 80–90% 22.0 15.0 90–100% 17.1 2.5 Median Utilization Rate 70-80 70-80 3. In the current quarter, to what degree have the following factors acted as constraints on capacity utilization? Not at all Slightly Moderately Significantly (%) (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 53.7 29.3 9.8 7.3 Energy markets 62.5 7.5 15.0 15.0 Financial capital 77.5 20.0 2.5 0.0 Labor supply 7.3 14.6 39.0 39.0 Supply chains 4.9 9.8 29.3 56.1 Other factors 58.8 0.0 23.5 17.6 4. Over the next three months, how do you expect the impacts of the following factors as constraints on capacity utilization to change? Worsen Stay the same Improve (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 2.6 43.6 53.8 Energy markets 67.5 32.5 0.0 Financial capital 15.8 84.2 0.0 Labor supply 27.5 47.5 25.0 Supply chains 43.6 33.3 23.1 Other factors 14.3 78.6 7.1 March 2022 March vs. February Six Months from Now vs. March Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 16.0 40.2 46.3 12.7 27.4 28.1 40.5 33.6 17.8 22.7 Conditions New Orders 14.2 39.3 41.8 13.5 25.8 24.9 38.4 35.7 16.4 22.0 Shipments 13.4 41.7 41.2 11.5 30.2 44.8 41.0 41.4 10.4 30.6 Unfilled Orders 15.8 37.1 44.2 16.1 21.0 -18.2 15.2 41.9 31.1 -15.9 Delivery Times 23.0 45.8 45.3 6.1 39.7 -22.3 19.8 44.3 26.0 -6.2 Inventories 4.0 21.6 54.3 21.1 0.5 4.3 37.2 43.4 6.3 30.8 Prices Paid 69.3 87.2 6.5 6.2 81.0 60.2 74.5 12.6 3.1 71.3 Prices Received 49.8 56.6 38.3 2.1 54.4 53.3 71.7 14.7 3.2 68.5 Number of Emp. 32.3 43.7 47.6 4.8 38.9 36.6 41.8 47.0 1.1 40.7 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 10.8 27.5 61.1 6.1 21.4 2.4 17.9 68.1 3.4 14.5 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 21.5 28.1 54.9 3.3 24.8 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through March 14, 2022. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: March 17, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. ET. February 2022 Note: Survey responses were collected from February 7 to February 14. Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to the firms responding to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments declined from last month’s readings but remained positive. The employment index rose, and the price indexes remained elevated. The future indexes continue to indicate that the firms expect growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Remain Positive The diffusion index for current activity decreased 7 points to 16.0 in February, mostly offsetting its increase from last month. More than 26 percent of the firms reported increases in current activity this month, while 10 percent reported decreases. Most firms (63 percent) reported no change. The index for new orders declined 4 points to a reading of 14.2, and the current shipments index fell 7 points to 13.4, its lowest reading since August 2020. On balance, the firms reported increases in manufacturing employment, and the current employment index rose 6 points to 32.3. Over 38 percent of the firms reported higher employment, 6 percent reported lower employment, and 56 percent reported no change. The average workweek index ticked up 1 point to 10.8. Price Indexes Remain Elevated The firms continued to report increases in prices for inputs and their own goods. The prices paid diffusion index edged down 3 points to 69.3. Nearly 74 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 5 percent reported decreases. The current prices received index increased 3 points to 49.8. More than 54 percent of the firms reported increases in prices of their own manufactured goods, while 4 percent reported decreases. Firms Expect Own Price Increases to Match Inflation Rate In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). Regarding their own prices, the firms’ median forecast was for an increase of 5.0 percent, down slightly from 5.3 percent when the question was last asked in November. The firms’ reported own price change over the past year was 5.0 percent. The firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 5.0 percent over the next four quarters, a slight increase from 4.8 percent in November. When asked about the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year, the firms’ median forecast was 5.0 percent, the same as in November. The firms’ median forecast for the long-run (10-year average) inflation rate was 3.0 percent, a decrease from 3.5 percent in November. Firms Continue to Expect Growth The respondents continued to anticipate growth over the next six months. The diffusion index for future general activity inched down from a reading of 28.7 in January to 28.1 in February. Over 38 percent of the firms expect growth over the next six months, 10 percent expect a decrease in activity, and 45 percent expect no change. The future new orders index decreased 5 points to 24.9, and the future shipments index edged down 1 point to 44.8. The future employment index declined 2 points to 36.6. More than 38 percent of the firms expect to increase employment in their manufacturing plants over the next six months, 2 percent anticipate employment declines, and 55 percent expect steady employment levels. Summary Responses to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion for the region’s manufacturing sector. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments all decreased from last month but remained positive. The firms also indicated overall increases in employment and more widespread increases in prices paid and received. The survey’s future indexes continue to suggest expected growth over the next six months. Special Questions (February 2022) Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous (Nov. 2021) For your firm: Forecast for next year (2022Q1-2023Q1) 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 5.0 5.3 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 5.0 4.8 Last year's price change (2021Q1-2022Q1) 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. 5.0 5.0 For U.S. consumers: 4. Prices consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. 5.0 5.0 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2022-2031). 3.0 3.5 The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. February 2022 February vs. January Six Months from Now vs. February Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 23.2 26.3 63.4 10.3 16.0 28.7 38.3 45.3 10.2 28.1 Conditions New Orders 17.9 31.4 51.3 17.3 14.2 29.4 36.2 50.8 11.4 24.9 Shipments 20.8 31.0 51.3 17.7 13.4 45.6 52.3 38.3 7.5 44.8 Unfilled Orders 23.5 25.4 64.6 9.5 15.8 -6.9 8.6 62.3 26.8 -18.2 Delivery Times 25.2 33.0 56.6 10.0 23.0 -2.3 10.3 57.2 32.5 -22.3 Inventories 3.1 21.8 59.4 17.9 4.0 11.8 23.7 55.2 19.5 4.3 Prices Paid 72.5 73.9 21.4 4.7 69.3 76.4 67.8 19.6 7.5 60.2 Prices Received 46.4 54.1 41.4 4.4 49.8 62.6 59.9 29.6 6.6 53.3 Number of Emp. 26.1 38.2 55.8 5.8 32.3 38.4 38.5 54.9 1.9 36.6 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 9.6 16.8 77.3 5.9 10.8 9.0 7.5 83.9 5.1 2.4 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 26.2 24.4 64.0 2.9 21.5 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through February 14, 2022. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: February 17, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. ET. January 2022 Note: Survey responses were collected from January 10 to January 18. Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to the firms responding to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, shipments, and new orders posted modest increases after falling sharply last month. The employment index remained positive but decreased. The price indexes remained elevated. Responding firms remained generally optimistic about growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Recover Somewhat The diffusion index for current general activity climbed 8 points to 23.2 in January after falling 24 points in December. Almost 31 percent of the firms reported increases in current activity this month, while 7 percent reported decreases; most (60 percent) reported no change. The current shipments index increased 6 points to 20.8. The share of firms reporting increases in shipments (39 percent) exceeded the share of firms reporting decreases (19 percent). The index for new orders, which had fallen 34 points last month, rose 4 points to 17.9 this month. More than 36 percent of the firms reported increases in new orders this month compared with 18 percent that reported decreases. On balance, the firms continued to report increases in employment, but the employment index declined from 33.9 in December to 26.1 this month. The majority of responding firms (63 percent) reported steady employment levels, and the share reporting increases (31 percent) exceeded the share reporting decreases (5 percent). The average workweek index dropped from 30.4 to 9.6, its lowest reading since September 2020. Price Increases Remain Widespread The indicators for prices paid and prices received moved in different directions this month but remained elevated. The prices paid index increased 6 points to 72.5. Almost 73 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while none reported decreases; 27 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index declined 4 points to 46.4, its second consecutive decrease. Just over half of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods this month, 4 percent reported decreases, and 45 percent reported no change. Firms Expect Highest Cost Increases for Raw Materials In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked about their expectations for changes in various input and labor costs for the coming year (see Special Questions). Responses indicate an expected average increase of 8.9 percent for raw materials, followed by energy, intermediate goods, health benefits, and total compensation (wages plus benefits), which are all expected to increase 6.4 percent on average. The firms also expect wages to rise an average of 4.9 percent in 2022. The respondents were also asked how the expected costs for 2022 will compare with the previous year’s costs. On balance, the forecasts indicated increases across all categories of expenses relative to 2021. Future Indicators Remain Positive The diffusion index for future general activity rose from 19.0 to 28.7, recovering its 10 point decline from last month. More than 44 percent of the firms expect increases in future activity, 16 percent expect decreases, and 39 percent expect no change. The future new orders and future shipments indexes rose 5 points and 14 points, respectively. The future employment index fell 19 points to 38.4 but continues to suggest that firms expect overall increases in employment over the next six months. Half of the firms expect steady employment levels, 41 percent of the firms expect to increase employment in their manufacturing plants over the next six months, and 2 percent expect employment declines. Future price indexes suggest that firms expect price increases to remain widespread over the next six months: The future prices paid index rose 23 points to 76.4, its highest reading since August 1988, and the future prices received index rose 8 points to 62.6. Summary Responses to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion in regional manufacturing conditions this month. The indicators for current activity, shipments, and new orders improved from their December readings. The price indexes continue to suggest widespread increases in prices and remain elevated. The survey’s future indexes indicated that respondents continue to expect overall growth over the next six months. Special Questions (January 2022) 1. What percentage change in costs do you expect for the following categories over all of 2022?* Energy Other Inter- Wages Health Non- Wages + (%) Raw mediate (%) Benefits health Health Materials goods (%) Benefits Benefits + (%) (%) (%) Nonhealth Benefits (%) Decline of more than 1% 4.8 2.4 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 2.4 No change 9.5 2.4 7.7 0.0 11.9 20.0 2.4 Increase of 1-2% 2.4 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.0 7.5 2.4 Increase of 2-3% 7.1 4.8 7.7 9.3 7.1 20.0 4.9 Increase of 3-4% 7.1 4.8 15.4 23.3 7.1 15.0 9.8 Increase of 4-5% 11.9 9.5 15.4 32.6 19.0 20.0 17.1 Increase of 5-7.5% 19.0 21.4 25.6 25.6 21.4 12.5 31.7 Increase of 7.5-10% 19.0 19.0 15.4 2.3 9.5 2.5 17.1 Increase of 10-12.5% 7.1 16.7 5.1 0.0 11.9 2.5 4.9 Increase of more than 12.5% 11.9 19.0 7.7 2.3 9.5 0.0 7.3 ------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------ Average Exp. Change 6.4 8.9 6.4 4.9 6.4 3.3 6.4 2. Do you expect these changes in costs to be higher, the same, or lower than the actual cost changes for 2021? Higher 75.0 72.7 76.2 84.1 72.7 62.8 83.7 Same 22.7 15.9 21.4 11.4 25.0 34.9 16.3 Lower 2.3 11.4 2.4 4.5 2.3 2.3 0.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Diffusion Index (Higher Minus Lower) 72.7 61.4 73.8 79.5 70.5 60.5 83.7 *The firms responded to more detailed changes than shown in the provided ranges. January 2022 January vs. December Six Months from Now vs. January Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 15.4 30.6 59.6 7.4 23.2 19.0 44.2 38.5 15.5 28.7 Conditions New Orders 13.7 36.2 45.5 18.3 17.9 24.2 46.0 31.8 16.7 29.4 Shipments 15.3 39.3 40.8 18.5 20.8 32.0 63.4 14.0 17.8 45.6 Unfilled Orders 11.4 30.3 56.7 6.8 23.5 -6.0 18.7 51.0 25.6 -6.9 Delivery Times 31.4 29.5 57.3 4.2 25.2 6.8 16.5 60.2 18.8 -2.3 Inventories 13.2 22.3 54.4 19.2 3.1 12.0 23.9 56.3 12.2 11.8 Prices Paid 66.1 72.5 26.6 0.0 72.5 53.8 78.3 14.6 1.9 76.4 Prices Received 50.4 50.3 45.1 3.9 46.4 54.9 65.3 27.8 2.7 62.6 Number of Emp. 33.9 30.5 62.8 4.5 26.1 56.6 40.7 50.0 2.3 38.4 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 30.4 18.9 67.3 9.3 9.6 6.5 21.0 62.9 12.0 9.0 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 20.0 31.7 59.6 5.5 26.2 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through January 18, 2022. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: January 20, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. ET. 华商网 pg-electron-contactus@brandon68.com 施勒智能 亚洲城YZC88 Ladbrokes-app-service@liaoningzhuzao.com WHOO后官网 我爱广告任务网 棋牌游戏 十大棋牌网赌软件 Online-gambling-platform-recommended-contact@airbrushforum.net 瑞士莲官网 热血传奇 白领网 首都人才网 57616网址导航 英雄联盟百宝箱 中国美术网 常州公交网 安卓主题 注册会计师全国统一考试网上报名 DAV数字音视工程网 下沙人才网 小蚂蚁人才网 7K7K小游戏视频攻略