January 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
注:调查回复收集于1月8日至1月15日.
该地区的制造业活动总体上继续下滑, according to the firms responding to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. 总体爱游戏登录app活动、新订单和发货量等指标均有所上升，但仍为负值. 就业指数变化不大，继续表明总体就业水平基本稳定. 物价指数显示物价全面上涨, but both indexes are below their long-run averages. 该调查中有关未来爱游戏登录app活动的广泛指标有所下降, 这表明对未来6个月整体爱游戏登录app增长的普遍预期有所降低.
Current Indicators Remain Weak
当前一般活动的扩散指数从修正后的-12上升.8 in December to -10.6 in January (see Chart 1).*这是该指数在过去20个月里第18次出现负值. More than 26 percent of the firms reported decreases, exceeding the 16 percent reporting increases; 52 percent of the firms reported no change in current activity. 当前新订单指数和当前发货量指数在1月份也有所上升，但仍为负值. The new orders index rose from -22.1 to -17.9, and the shipments index rose 5 points to -6.2.
总的来说，这些公司报告的就业情况变化不大. 就业指数微升不到1点，至-1.8 in January. Similar shares of the firms reported decreases (12 percent) and increases (11 percent) in employment; most firms (75 percent) reported steady employment levels. 平均每周工作时间指数仍为负值，但上升5点至-0.9.
Price Indexes Dip Below Long-Run Averages
总的来说，这些公司报告了价格的总体上涨. However, most firms reported no change in prices, 两个价格指数都跌破了长期平均水平. The prices paid index fell 13 points to 11.3 in January (see Chart 2). 超过16%的企业报告投入价格上涨(低于上个月的32%)。, while 5 percent reported decreases (down from 8 percent); 79 percent reported no change (up from 60 percent last month). 目前物价接收指数下降6点，为6点.3. 近8%的公司报告称，他们的产品价格有所上涨, 2 percent reported decreases, and 87 percent reported no change.
Firms Expect Smaller Cost Increases for 2024
In this month’s special questions, 这些企业被问及过去一年各种投入和爱游戏登录app成本的变化情况，以及他们对未来一年成本变化的预期. For all categories, 预计2024年的平均成本变化百分比小于2023年报告的平均成本变化百分比. 受访者还被要求对制定价格时各种因素的重要性进行排序. 对本国商品/服务的需求是最重要的因素, followed by maintaining steady profit margins, wage and labor costs, and competitors’ prices.
Key Future Indicators Decline
未来一般活动的扩散指数从修正后的12下降.6 in December to -4.1月份为0，为5月份以来的最低水平(见图1)。. 近26%的公司预计未来6个月的活动将会减少, exceeding the 22 percent that expect an increase; 43 percent expect no change. The future new orders index declined 12 points to 9.7，未来出货量指数下降15点至5.5. On balance, 这些公司预计未来6个月就业情况基本稳定, 未来就业指数基本保持不变，为1.1. 未来支付价格指数上升13点，至34点.4、而未来物价指数收跌8点至20点.7. 这两个未来价格指数都低于其长期平均水平. 未来资本支出指数上升15点，至7点.5, its first positive reading since September.
Summary
Responses to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey 暗示该地区制造业整体下滑. 当前爱游戏登录app活动、新订单和出货量指标均为负值. On balance, 这些公司继续表示物价总体上涨，就业基本稳定. 该调查中有关未来爱游戏登录app活动的广泛指标走弱, 这表明对未来6个月爱游戏登录app增长的普遍预期有所降低.
* The survey’s annual data revisions, which incorporate updated seasonal factors, were released on January 11, 2024. The full history of revised data is available here.
Special Questions (January 2024)
|
2023 (Actual) |
2024 (Expected) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Average (%) |
Median (%) |
Average (%) |
Median (%) |
|
| Energy | 3.1 | 2–3 | 1.9 | 1–2 |
| Other Raw Materials | 2.6 | 3–4 | 2.2 | 2–3 |
| Intermediate Goods | 3.2 | 3–4 | 2.4 | 3–4 |
| Wages | 4.8 | 4–5 | 3.0 | 3–4 |
| Health Benefits | 5.4 | 3–5 | 4.6 | 3–4 |
| Nonhealth Benefits | 2.6 | 2–3 | 2.2 | 1–2 |
| Wages + Health Benefits + Nonhealth Benefits | 5.6 | 4–5 | 4.4 | 3–4 |
| 注:受访者选择了百分比变化范围. 平均百分比变化是使用每个答案选项范围的中点计算的. | ||||
| Weighted Average* (%) |
|
|---|---|
| Your competitors' prices | 73 |
| The strength of demand for your most important good(s) or service(s) | 81 |
| Your wages and labor costs (including benefits) | 76 |
| 你的非人工成本，如能源价格、材料价格、运输成本、租金等. | 68 |
| 保持稳定的利润率(价格高于成本) | 78 |
| 利率，借款利率，以及资金成本 | 47 |
| 供应链的问题，比如瓶颈和 product shortages | 47 |
| The overall rate of inflation in the U.S. economy, as measured by the Consumer Price Index | 51 |
| Other | 59 |
| *受访者报告重要性的等级为1(最不重要)到5(最重要). The weighted average gives 1 a weight of 0; 2 a weight of 0.25; 3 a weight of 0.5; 4 a weight of 0.75; and 5 a weight of 1. | |
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